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A Systematic Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topicsin Urban Land Change Models

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A Systematic Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topicsin Urban Land Change Models

Abstract

Future land use planning and urban development present complex challengesdue to uncertainties from environmental, social, and technological factors.Urban Land Change Modeling (Urban LCM) serves as a crucial tool for simulating and understanding the dynamics of future land use change. This study conducted a systematic literature review from four academic databases, analyzing 124 articles from 2010-2024 to examine drivingfactors, scenario patterns, and research topics. The results identified 135 distinct driving factors classified into four main groups: naturalenvironment factors (31%), built environment factors (40.74%), socio-economic factors (17.04%), and other factors (10.37%). Distance toroads emerged as the most frequently used factor (62 times). Scenario analysis was employed in only 37.1% of studies, with the main patterns including business as usual, environmental conservation, and compact development. Research topics were categorized into three groups: urban growth prediction and modeling (49.2%), model development (33.9%), and impact assessment (16.9%). The findings highlight the necessityfor multi-dimensional factor integration, development of new scenariopatterns, and bridging research with policy applications for sustainableurban land management in the context of increasing uncertainty andfuture challenges.

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